Season Two: Ratings Predictions/Discussion

[Stargater276]

Homer 120 - 1.4 million
sg1fan - 1.25 million
Egle01 - 1.3 million
fluxcapacitor - 1.22 million
Jumper - 1.3 million
Tanith0709 - 1.28 million.
Eternal Density - 1.26 million
Mediasavant - 1.1 million
LoneStar1836 - 1.36 m
FoX1028 - 1.24 million
SGeff-1.34 Mill and 0.6 ratings
Shadow_7 - 1.39 million
carmencatalina - 1.59 million
Stargater276 - 1.321 million

[Kanten]

Things are definitely more optimistic than they were a week ago. Will be nice to see if it keeps increasing.

...though we have a Carl Binder episode next week.

[Briangate78]

Things are definitely more optimistic than they were a week ago. Will be nice to see if it keeps increasing.

...though we have a Carl Binder episode next week.

Carl Binder wrote some great eps for SGA, so have confidence in his abilities. As long as it's not like "Life" then it's all good.

[jelgate]

Carl Binder wrote some great eps for SGA, so have confidence in his abilities. As long as it's not like "Life" then it's all good.

He also wrote Water. Be afraid. Be very afraid

[Briangate78]

He also wrote Water. Be afraid. Be very afraid

LOL, I actually really liked Water.

[jelgate]

LOL, I actually really liked Water.

Water was sad and pathetic. The plot was solved

Spoiler:

by an earthquake.

[carmencatalina]

Water was sad and pathetic. The plot was solved

Spoiler:

by an earthquake.

It was not sad and pathetic! Greer + flamethrower = epic love.

[the fifth man]

LOL, I actually really liked Water.

I thought it was a pretty good episode too.

[Kanten]

He also wrote Water. Be afraid. Be very afraid

Also Pain.

Basically, several the weaker episodes in S1 were from Binder scripts. Maybe SGU's style just doesn't really play to his strengths.

[Tanith0709]

The fact that the next episode is directed by Robert Carlyle may also cause interest.

[Nikec3]

Homer 120 - 1.4 million
sg1fan - 1.25 million
Egle01 - 1.3 million
fluxcapacitor - 1.22 million
Jumper - 1.3 million
Tanith0709 - 1.28 million.
Eternal Density - 1.26 million
Mediasavant - 1.1 million
LoneStar1836 - 1.36 m
FoX1028 - 1.24 million
SGeff-1.34 Mill and 0.6 ratings
Shadow_7 - 1.39 million
carmencatalina - 1.59 million
Stargater276 - 1.321 million
Nikec3 - 1.35 million

[nesais]

Regarding the next episode:

Spoiler:

What's to prevent these characters from using the bodies to commit other antisocial and illegal acts? Where's the limit? "Great question. And it's one executive producer Carl may be positing in Season Two."

and

Spoiler:

Camille will return to Earth to visit her partner Sharon in this episode, and Eli will have another turn at the communication stones to visit his mother. This is according to reports from the SGU panel at San Diego Comic-Con.

from http://www.gateworld.net/universe/s2/204.shtml

But I think that the fact that Carlyle is directing, the whole Chloe alien thing, and that snippet in the spoiler regarding Eli, might contribute to the episode, because I was actually really interested in the aforementioned Eli thing (I'm not really sure how much we're allowed to say about it =S, regarding forum rules and spoilers), so I'm not sure about how the ratings will go for Pathogen, but hopefully the plot/drama/action will not be as heavy hitting as we might think despite everything that one could say to the episodes detriment

[Eternal Density]

Utter the word make good around NBC and people fall silent.

That's two words.

[Michael Hinman]

Oh yeah? So please, by all means explain to me why Syfy Digital's GM, Craig Engler, says they do?

You can find this on a blog he wrote in the question and answer section. Search for Craig or Engler to find it easier.

http://www.boingboing.net/2010/05/12...a-tv-show.html

Hello, Alexandria!

I skimmed through the link you provided, but I don't see the pull quotes you provided here in your post in that blog. I'm assuming you just sent me to a general area, and that the specific column is elsewhere on the site?

Since the link didn't seem to talk about this issue at hand, I can only really react to the pull quotes you provided here. Without seeing the full context of the quotes, I can only go by what you provided, which seem to indicate that Craig is referring to broadcast network activities, not cable network activities, and how cable channels may sometimes pick up on broadcast network decisions to not air episodes (he uses "Firefly" as an example, which was a Fox program that Syfy later broadcast unaired episodes of).

My specific discussion on this pertained specifically to the decisions made by Syfy in terms of its own original programming. I have watched this channel from the beginning, and I am not aware of any specific instance where Syfy chose not to air episodes "in the can" of an original series. If there are examples of this, please let me know, and I will adjust my thinking on this. But I cannot think of any, and it wouldn't make sense for the business model that cable channels work under.

Broadcast networks cancel shows all the time with episodes unaired (like with "Lone Star" on Fox, or "Outlaw" on NBC). Production on "Outlaw" had stopped a week or so ago, but there were still at least three episodes (maybe more) that were completed, and ready for broadcast. NBC likely will never air those episodes (or they could burn them off during some hiatus, but that's unlikely).

The reason cable channels wouldn't normally do this is because their business model is completely different. Unlike broadcast networks, which only have primetime slots available with its affiliates, cable channels have all 24 hours. That means even if a show is failing, the cable channel can simply move it to another timeslot anywhere in the 24-hour cycle, and still at least get some financial return on the show.

If a show is not doing well in a broadcast run, there is little reason to suspect that "unaired" episodes would be a strong marketing tool for a DVD release. I mean seriously, think of a show you didn't watch, weren't interested in, and it got cancelled. Would you be running to buy the DVD set because it has unaired episodes?

Please, Mr. Hinman before you dismiss someone's statement as false,

I don't recall stating that someone's statement was false. I simply disagreed, stating that Syfy wouldn't pull a show off the air and not air episodes that have been produced, at least not with an original series. That is based on history (the fact that, as far as I know, it's never been done), and the business model cable channels like Syfy use.

research it to ensure that you have all of the facts. While it might not be David Howe, or his assistant, Craig does make renew and cancel decisions as well as decisions to pick up other shows.

Has Craig Engler stated that somewhere? To be honest, I don't know everything Craig Engler does, but I don't believe he's in on the decisions on whether shows are renewed or cancelled. He is in the loop in terms of those discussions, because of his job in promoting interactive media and the like, but I am not aware of him being a part of that decision. Typically, the people who are in the discussion of the fate of Syfy shows are Dave Howe, Mark Stern and Bonnie Hammer, along with a few others.

Maybe that does include Craig. I don't know. But I can't definitively say that Craig is a part of that like you did here without getting that corroborated.

He is also the man in charge of Syfy's Twitter. Check it out. www.twitter.com/Syfy

I am well aware of Craig's responsibilities and who he is. I've met him a number of times, and he does great work promoting Syfy. However, like I said, in terms of his involvement in content decisions of the network, I don't know that for sure. I've never been told that he was part of a decision, but then again, I've never asked.

Oh and about Caprica and it's advertising money...well, I will let you in on a little network secret from having worked years with NBC. Live ratings determine the amount of money advertisers have to pay to air their spot during a specific show. The lower the ratings, the less they pay. Pretty straight forward.

Ummm, was that directed at me? Or was that a general observation for the thread? I just wanted to make sure, because it's not really a secret, and it's actually a bit obvious. However, one thing to note: if demo ratings are higher, even if the overall ratings are lower, premium rates can be applied, thus allowing a show to actually make more money in direct advertising revenue than a show that might have more viewers overall.

And while direct advertising does remain the primary revenue generator for television shows, it's not the only revenue source, as now other media platforms such as iTunes, Hulu, DVD and such exist, and generate some revenue, albeit in smaller amounts.

Now for the complicated. Ratings are forecasted, so networks estimate how many viewers will be watching the ads. Advertisers pay at the estimated figure. If the ratings come out and it scores much lower than expected, as Caprica has, then that means the network must perform a "make good". Make goods are bad, very bad. It means that because the advertisers paid for eyes that were not on their show, the network now must air their spot for free in other shows until they make up those eyes. Usually this has to be done immediately. So they are technically bumping paid spots to air a free one. OUCH! Now imagine if they had to do that for all of their Caprica sponsors, and likely SGU's as well since it did not perform up to expectations for the premiere either. That is a whole lot of free advertising where they could be earning money. How long do you honestly think they would keep that up?

Very true. But this is assuming that the sold rating was not met. I mean, don't get me wrong, I don't think it's been met. But we are making an assumption here that it's not been met, and that Syfy has been forced to do make-goods.

By the way, that was very well explained. This is one of the reasons why we established the Audience Loyalty Index metric a few years ago, because of under- and over-sells.

[Michael Hinman]

Did more people watch Awakening because of the new aliens or because they heard Intervention and Aftermath were good.

I don't see how ratings go up during the current episode because it is good, unless the advertising was that much of a draw?

You guys understand me?

Well, I am not sure how much it can be tracked, but remember that ratings are an average of smaller time blocks through the hour, typically broken down in quarters. So say SGU started with 5 million viewers, dropped to 4 million viewers in the second 15-minute block, rose again to 4.5 million viewers in the second 15-minute block (maybe because some other show ended, and they were flipping channels and found the show), and ended at 4 million in the final 15-minute block, the overall rating would then average those numbers, and give you a total.

Ratings could go up because of a specific episode (that may not have been enhanced by stunt casting or extra marketing) based on the fact that a good number of people tuned in to an episode, and enjoyed it so much, they didn't tune out.

So say you have two episodes, and each one started with 5 million viewers. If the first episode, the second half-hour dropped to 3 million viewers, you would have your average of 4 million viewers. In the second episode, you had 5 million viewers to start, but you only lost 500,000 viewers in the second half, you end up with an average of 4.75 million viewers, which obviously is a boost over the 4 million viewers from the week before.

Hope that helps!