Season Two: Ratings Predictions/Discussion

[Mitchell82]

Mallozzi has said both that SGU's ratings have no effect on the movies, AND that the way to get the movies done is to watch SGU. At the same time as well, he's said that if SGU is cancelled, the SGU movie would get priority before SGA or SG1 movies.

As far as ratings in Canada, consider that there's only 30million+ people up here. the USA has literally ten times more people. Without numbers, 16% isn't exactly an accurate way of saying how popular it is in comparison to US figures.

At least he has a plan. I'd hate for SGU to end on a cliffhanger like TSCC did.

[Briangate78]

none of us empirically knows the 'magic number' for renewal

people can guess, but not really know.

And, it's very likely that renewal will be based more on the sum of
(ratings + mgm's share + actor's salaries + production costs, which may/may not = renewal)

If MGM ponies up more money or if they recruit a sponsor of some sort that'll toss in more money that might equal skiffy's cost being low enough that their profit margin is worth it

Some folks have an idea what the network is looking for, but you are right, MGM can always lower the fees they charge Syfy if ratings are down. But I happen to know that last weeks numbers, are putting the show in a very fragile position. Not saying it is game over, because I honestly don't know how hard MGM would fight to keep this show going. Plus, the show could uptick.

[suse]

Are you trying to suggest that someone who has no problem downloading DVDs, and is doing so, will then go out and spend money on DVDs? LMAO! I assume they also are the ones with bridges for sale in Brooklyn? Do you really believe this B.S., or are just in need of being a contrarian?

Actually... I could see a scenario of people downloading eps because they had no access any other way, then buying the DVDs for the extras when they become available.

[nesais]

i know that the general routine here has been primarily what the US ratings are doing because this is what will have the biggest impact on whether or not the show is renewed. i also know that it might not be as easy to get the number of viewers for the show in other countries where it airs.

after hearing that other countries such as canada and germany might be giving sgu a better shot at a second season than the states is (timeslot, probably?), i wonder how tv viewing is in other countries, and are there certain aspects that might make sgu favorable for certain reasons. eg. timeslots in different countries where it airs, eg. differences in what a country watches.

has anyone heard figures on what numbers sgu is getting elsewhere? if it's generally following the same trend as the US ratings then yeah, maybe the world agrees that sgu isn't something they'd prefer to watch, but if it isn't going this way then i'm guessing the primary factor to blame might be the timeslot (i say might because i know people are pretty vocal about their opinions/knowledge )

true a lot of these numbers are in yet. personally i think, if this show is gonna be cancelled then that's the way it's gonna be, i'd rather spend these next 19 episodes discussing maths of why in as much a robust way as possible. i only say this because after skimming or reading some threads the number of times w13 was brought up made me want to do nothing but skim skim skim to the bottom of the page...

don't mean to seem offensive or rude to anyone or anything, it'd be good to see other numbers to put syfy's decision in some sort of wider context, even if it doesn't mean anything to some fans concerned about whether the show survives or not

[jmoz]

Aftermath predictions:

Major Davis - 1.33 million
myhelix - 1.7 million
Pharaoh Atem - 1.4 million
Egle01 - 1.45 million
doomsday-guy - 1.58 million
Promethius30 - 1.5 million
Darren - 1.21 million
LoneStar1836 - 1.195 million
carmencatalina - 1.7 million
xxxevilgrinxxx - 1.6 million
coZma - 1.4 million
katikatnik - 1.1 million
Nikec3 - 1.3 million
SSJPabs - 1.3 million
Tanith0709 - 1.2 million
Derocalypse - 1.9 million
joeynox - 1.27 million
fluxcapacitor - 1.2 million
Stargater276 - 1.46 million
Coronach - 1.51 million
jelgate - 0.9 million
sg1fan - 1.35 million
Lt. Jeffer - 1.5 million
Cmd Zelix - 0.9 million
RoX - 940,000
Artemis-Neith 1.0 million
DCK: 1.3 million
Outandaboot: 0.93 million
Matt Silver 3k: 1.125 million
jmoz: 1.2 million and a taco
Dregun: 1.232 million
Commander Zelix: 0.9 million
reddevil18: 1.35 million... 0.6 18-49
dacooker: 1.2 million
vszulc: 1.25 million
Snookie16: 0.998 million
Jumper: 1.0 million
jmoz: 1.31459 million

[katikatnik]

Actually... I could see a scenario of people downloading eps because they had no access any other way, then buying the DVDs for the extras when they become available.

I have to say that however I watch a show, when I love it, I always buy it on DVD. There's just something about watching the DVDs... I don't know, for me it's a really nice experience. Also, it gives me the feeling that I helped the show, at least a tiny, tiny bit.

I think that TPTB use illegal downloads as an excuse. Sure, it looks great when they can say "See? 50k illegal downloads right there. If these people watched it live..." But as someone else said, it's just a drop in an ocean of viewers AND most of those downloads are from foreign countries anyway. But it is a good excuse...

[SBN]

Actually... I could see a scenario of people downloading eps because they had no access any other way, then buying the DVDs for the extras when they become available.

Sure that is a very reasonable situation, however I am speaking only of the percentage group that does have means to watch, purchase, or view via ad supported, but instead chose pirated means. Now people that have no problem downloading pirated movies, software, etc.. very likely are also pirating the DVD sets of TV shows. If there was no means illegally to obtain, then you simply would have some who will find a means of obtaining. Maybe it is just as simple as spending less money on beer one weekend to purchase or rent, or maybe it is simply spending the time viewing via a service like Hulu. These arguments some attempt to make that pirating has no ill effect is disingenuous, childish, naive, and ignorant.

Fact of the matter is we have a growing generation and culture of what I call entitlement brats. The argument has actually gone from "These people wouldn't have purchased in the first place (incorrect)" to many who now feel that anything digital or made digital is public domain. Arguments are used that it is OK to download, because it is the industry that just needs to find a new business model (as if they are suppose to provide their product for free to these kiddies). The semantics of this being theft or not is irregardless to the ultimate issue and that is deprivation of income to a project or product that only exists when income is received. Take ever person that pirated the two most recent straight to DVD movies of Stargate, then estimate a low ball number how many you think would have purchased or rented? I don't know that number, no does anyone else. One person downloading a straight to DVD Stargate movie may not affect the revenue, but when it is widely and freely available and thousands are downloading it nobody can make the argument this did not hurt their bottom line.

[katikatnik]

More info about WWE:

2.524 million viewers
0.8 A18-49

It was #2 for the night on cable with adults 18-49 and #1 on cable with men 18-34, 18-49 and 25-54.

Link

[Homer 120]

One thing is for sure, tonight is a very big night ratings wise for SGU. On that note I predict a:

1.4

[nesais]

(context: sgu in australia)

what i find disappointing over here is that sgu was dropped by channel ten coz it got bad in the ratings, and then out came all the other free to air channels such as go and 7mate and caprica is on 7mate where the expectations wont be as high, so caprica is prolly gonna get a much better run on free to air tv than sgu ever did.

as for sgu ratings in australia, sci fi australia takes up about 1% of the tv viewing, but other than that no actual ratings relevant to sgu will be known since it never gets the big enough numbers here to be in the public release for pay tv ratings

[xxxevilgrinxxx]

Say whaaatttt.. i thought you said 1.4-1.5 would be enough?

*in best Rush voice, a la end of Justice*
[for some] It will never be enough!

[jelgate]

I would have to disagree with Brian (I know big surprise.). 1.4 million would be enough. Not very impressive and barely enough but it would scrape by

[UAGoalieGuy]

I know i'm reaching here, but the show being the #1 downloaded TV show off ITunes in Canada and #4 in the United States has to be a good thing? no?

[KEK]

Sort of yes, and sort of no. It's good that a lot of people watch the show, but bad that they're presumably downloading it instead of watching it live

[UAGoalieGuy]

Sort of yes, and sort of no. It's good that a lot of people watch the show, but bad that they're presumably downloading it instead of watching it live

This is true, but people are paying to download it off Itunes. I assume MGM/SyFy get a piece of those sales.