Season Two: Ratings Predictions/Discussion

[RealmOfX]

Wasn't Caprica pulled off its weekly schedule after 5 episodes, when it returned? If SGU's ratings for the next 2 episodes are close to last week's ratings, then I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happened to it. And, if that happened, then maybe it would be for the best because fans would still be able to see the remaining shows in a 1-day burn off and we wouldn't have to see how low SGU's weekly ratings could get before the end.

Caprica aired 4 episodes and then was pulled from the schedule. It's ratings at that stage were :
889,000
840,000
718,000
840,000
And SGU's so far are :
1,035,000
928,000
814,000

Though the situation between Caprica and SGU is different because NBCU had a vested interest in Caprica and they were releasing the DVDs and may have been trying to boost DVD sales by temporarily withdrawing the episodes from airing for a few months.

SGU might get pulled from the schedule if it's ratings fall below the ratings of rerun shows and Syfy decide it would be more cost effective to air at another time.

So far these are the weekly Syfy primetime averages for comparison -

Week.......Average....First Run..Rerun......SGU
Ending................Average....Average
13-Mar-11..1,431,000..1,885,222..1,090,333..1,035,000
20-Mar-11..1,157,000..1,584,400....768,455....928,000
27-Mar-11.....................................814,000

[Briangate78]

Yes, it is a good show. The episodes are an interesting mix of serious & light-hearted elements and episodic & serial storytelling. There is an overall story arc, but there are also episodes that are related, but not vital, to that arc.

I hope you can find the time to catch up before Season 4. Wow, Season 4... I still can't believe Fringe was renewed because I had been expecting its cancellation since the end of Season 2. I'm so happy that my concerns weren't realized.

Tvbythenumbers mentioned it could of been the impressive DVR lift, but It just bolds down to any reason a show gets renewed, it is making the network a profit. I think DVR has a little impact, but it really needs to be a significant amount, imo.

BTW, SGU's DVR is not impressive at all.

Wasn't Caprica pulled off its weekly schedule after 5 episodes, when it returned? If SGU's ratings for the next 2 episodes are close to last week's ratings, then I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happened to it. And, if that happened, then maybe it would be for the best because fans would still be able to see the remaining shows in a 1-day burn off and we wouldn't have to see how low SGU's weekly ratings could get before the end.

Yes, it was pulled. Caprica was scoring around 700 to 800K viewers. SGU is not far from there. I don't think it will be burned off, but it is still a possibility.

I know some are speculating that McKay's episode could provide a ratings boost, but even if that happened, it would probably be a small boost. Especially if fans fear that he'll be written out of character and decide not to tune in. There are concerns that he may be written more as SG-1-McKay than as SGA McKay.

I highly doubt the Mckay episode would spike, but if it does, and then the next ep tanks, it will raise some eyebrows but then you will have people saying it is insufficient data to prove anything and not relevant and yada yada yada. lol.

BTW, here is a summary of SGU by half season..

Season 1.0 - 1.9 Million viewers
Season 1.5 - 1.4 Million viewers
Season 2.0 - 1.1 Million viewers
Season 2.5 - 925,000 viewers

[chrono trigger]

BTW, here is a summary of SGU by half season..

Season 1.0 - 1.9 Million viewers
Season 1.5 - 1.4 Million viewers
Season 2.0 - 1.1 Million viewers
Season 2.5 - 925,000 viewers

i still cant believe a stargate is pulling these kind of numbers just out of curiosity what was sg1 ratings for the syfy channel like brian?

[AndersonFan]

syfy has already paid for the episodes so they can do whatever they want.

Sure they can, but they'll try to make the most out of them.

As per SGU, Syfy could pull it and just burn it off. If the numbers get any lower it is very possible. They have no obligation to air the remaining eps. Which I doubt they won't air them. But I could see them pull SGU from a primetime slot and just burn them off like Caprica.

They won't because the ratings will go up with "Seizure" and Syfy knows that.

[RealmOfX]

They won't because the ratings will go up with "Seizure" and Syfy knows that.

No, they don't know that. Guest appearances haven't made any noticeable impact on the ratings so far, so whilst they may hope that they'll go up there is no way that they'll know it will go up. Besides just going up may not be enough of an impact not to withdraw SGU from the schedule, it really depends on what the bottom line is for Syfy. We know it was around the 820k mark for Caprica but would it be the same for SGU???

[Gatefan1976]

Sure they can, but they'll try to make the most out of them.


They won't because the ratings will go up with "Seizure" and Syfy knows that.

The last thing SGU fans could wish for is a spike in the ratings for seizure

(sorry carmen)

[maxbo]

Caprica aired 4 episodes and then was pulled from the schedule. It's ratings at that stage were :
889,000
840,000
718,000
840,000
And SGU's so far are :
1,035,000
928,000
814,000

Though the situation between Caprica and SGU is different because NBCU had a vested interest in Caprica and they were releasing the DVDs and may have been trying to boost DVD sales by temporarily withdrawing the episodes from airing for a few months.

Those numbers are pretty close, but as you mentioned, Syfy may continue to air SGU despite low Caprica-like ratings because the network has nothing to gain by holding back the remaining episodes.

SGU might get pulled from the schedule if it's ratings fall below the ratings of rerun shows and Syfy decide it would be more cost effective to air at another time.

So far these are the weekly Syfy primetime averages for comparison -

Week.......Average....First Run..Rerun......SGU
Ending................Average....Average
13-Mar-11..1,431,000..1,885,222..1,090,333..1,035,000
20-Mar-11..1,157,000..1,584,400....768,455....928,000
27-Mar-11.....................................814,000

This is interesting because although I knew SGU was lagging behind Syfy's first run average, I didn't realize that it was also struggling against Syfy's rerun average. I thought its one saving grace, ratings-wise, was that it had a solid lead over Syfy's rerun average. But since that's not the case, anything could happen in the coming weeks.

Tvbythenumbers mentioned it could of been the impressive DVR lift, but It just bolds down to any reason a show gets renewed, it is making the network a profit. I think DVR has a little impact, but it really needs to be a significant amount, imo.

BTW, SGU's DVR is not impressive at all.

Yeah, I remember reading reports a few weeks ago that Fringe's DVR numbers were very good, but few expected this to save the show. However, as you mentioned, it couldn't have hurt the decision to renew the show. Despite the pessimism that the move to Friday caused, I never had the feeling that the network wanted to get rid of the show, so impressive DVR numbers probably gave TPTB the extra edge it needed to justify renewal.

Yes, it was pulled. Caprica was scoring around 700 to 800K viewers. SGU is not far from there. I don't think it will be burned off, but it is still a possibility.

After getting only 814,000 viewers, SGU is now within striking distance of Caprica's 700 to 800K viewers, so I wouldn't be surprised if a burn off decision is made. Especially if next week's ratings don't significantly pick up. On the other hand, I also wouldn't be surprised if Syfy just decided to ride SGU out in weekly airings. I think that unless Syfy has something that it wants to promote during SGU's current time slot that it'll just leave things as they are until SGU's last episode airs.

I highly doubt the Mckay episode would spike, but if it does, and then the next ep tanks, it will raise some eyebrows but then you will have people saying it is insufficient data to prove anything and not relevant and yada yada yada. lol.

I agree. I would be surprised if McKay's episode caused a significant ratings jump, but if it did and the following episodes went back to Caprica-like numbers, then that would be very interesting - especially on the Stargate boards. Man, I can almost hear the heated discussions now.


But, like I said I doubt there will be much of a spike because including past SG characters didn't do much for the ratings last season. My feeling is that fans of past SG characters don't want to see them as merely supporting characters in SGU episodes, they want to see them actively involved in the episodes, and they want to see them written as they remembered.

BTW, here is a summary of SGU by half season..

Season 1.0 - 1.9 Million viewers
Season 1.5 - 1.4 Million viewers
Season 2.0 - 1.1 Million viewers
Season 2.5 - 925,000 viewers

Before this season I thought the ratings had settled down a steady 1 million viewers. But, instead the ratings are continuing to drop like a stone. Remember when fans were freaking out about Justice's 1.3 million viewers a year ago? Now that 1.3 million would be met with cheers.

[myhelix]

The last thing SGU fans could wish for is a spike in the ratings for seizure

I know what I wish for at the moment.

And Brian, I don´t care about SyFy´s SGU numbers at all. Why should they make any profit from a show they canned?
It is obvious that a lot of people lose interest when they knew a show gets no real ending. The only reason I watch the final episodes is because I really, really love SGU. As I casual viewer I would not bother any longer. And three day changes are death for all ratings, period.

[AndersonFan]

The last thing SGU fans could wish for is a spike in the ratings for seizure

(sorry carmen)

Now why would that be? True SGU fans would like to see a spike in the ratings for whatever reason as long as the show stays true to its concept.

I highly doubt the Mckay episode would spike, but if it does, and then the next ep tanks, it will raise some eyebrows but then you will have people saying it is insufficient data to prove anything and not relevant and yada yada yada. lol.

We'll see about that. Remember Joe Flanigan on W13? Hewlett is no Flanigan, but I think we would see the same thing at play here. Don't underestimate the curiosity of fans.

[Briangate78]

@Maxbo

Fringe is a perfect example of a network moving a show to another night for it to succeed. It has. SGU was moved to Tuesday not to kill it like some people claim but for it to find an audience

@Myhelix

If you don't care about SGU or a chance of a mini-series or movie then it is cool not to care about the ratings. These ratings on Syfy and around the world will most likely have some kind of impact on MGM's decision for a movie.

[maxbo]

@Maxbo

Fringe is a perfect example of a network moving a show to another night for it to succeed. It has. SGU was moved to Tuesday not to kill it like some people claim but for it to find an audience

Exactly, Syfy did with Caprica and SGU the same thing that Fox did with Fringe. When it saw that Caprica and SGU weren't getting the ratings they needed to survive on Fridays, they moved both shows in an attempt to increase their chance of survival. When this decision was made I think Syfy had two choices - either cancel both shows immediately or give them another chance by moving them to a day with more potential viewers.

Unlike Fringe, which had issues with competition last season and needed to be moved to a night with less competition, both SGU and Caprica had problems with viewers returning once they had seen the shows. Therefore, I can see why they were moved to a night with a lot more potential new viewers because both shows needed to get (and keep) the attention of brand new viewers to survive.

Those who keep insisting that SGU should have been kept on Fridays are hand-waving away the fact SGU had already started dipping down to its current low ratings while it was airing on Fridays.

@Myhelix

If you don't care about SGU or a chance of a mini-series or movie then it is cool not to care about the ratings. These ratings on Syfy and around the world will most likely have some kind of impact on MGM's decision for a movie.

I agree - for those who want more of SGU, the ratings for the remaining episodes are still very important because MGM will surely factor them in when they make their decision about any follow-up to SGU.

[major davis]

@Maxbo

Fringe is a perfect example of a network moving a show to another night for it to succeed. It has. SGU was moved to Tuesday not to kill it like some people claim but for it to find an audience

@Myhelix

If you don't care about SGU or a chance of a mini-series or movie then it is cool not to care about the ratings. These ratings on Syfy and around the world will most likely have some kind of impact on MGM's decision for a movie.

Weren't Fringe's ratings kinda lame (even though the show was renewed)?

[Alexandria7]

Weren't Fringe's ratings kinda lame (even though the show was renewed)?

Actually, the last time I checked, which granted was in the first two episodes following the Friday move, Fringe remained steady. It retained it's viewers from Thursday. Everyone everywhere turned into doomsayers, but FOX execs quickly dismissed the doomsay talk in an interview saying that if Fringe could keep 3/4 of their viewers that the show would still score better ratings than anything they could put in its place on Friday. He alluded to the fact that there was still a very good chance of a 4th season pickup despite the move and possibility that Friday would see less viewers.

So I guess it comes down to this, is it stronger than anything they have waiting in the wings?

[themeatcleaver]

...And three day changes are death for all ratings, period.

To say nothing of the fact that it's changing timeslots yet again for April and moving to 9pm instead of 10.

/me sighs.

[Alexandria7]

To say nothing of the fact that it's changing timeslots yet again for April and moving to 9pm instead of 10.

/me sighs.

Yeah a lot of people seem to be complaining about that, but the simple fact is, the "facts" to back up the claim that the time slot has anything to do with the downfall of the show are non-existent.

It would be true if the ratings actually fell immediately when moved to Tuesday. Truth: they had already been hovering just above a million since the Justice episode way back in season 1.

It would be true if the show returned on Monday to less ratings than it had on Tuesday. Truth: The ratings pretty much were steady.

There are reasons for moving shows around. If SGU were still on Fridays up against Fringe and Supernatural, they'd have probably burned off the episodes in a marathon by now. I just don't see any proof that the moving of the show or the time slot had much affect on the show.