Massive Asuran fleet, but how many Wraith dead?

[JSPuddlejumper]

We all heard that a "massive" fleet left Asuras.

How massive a fleet? 20 ships? 30+? 50+?

With such a fleet, and the Asurans capability to build ships incredibly fast, one would expect them to be decimating the Wraith.

The Asurans never need to rest or sleep, so they can go after the Wraith continuously, and they will never face man power or supply shortages. They are the greatest weapon ever invented, only weakness is that they don't have a good enough firewall to stop access to their base code.

So it has been many weeks since the Asuran fleet attacked the Wraith, my guess it that the Asurans have destroyed at least 1/3 the Wraith fleet.

[Buba uognarf]

Well we do know that the Wraith are hitting back in some form or another taking out Asuran ships. Although it is quite likely that the Wraith have lost a great deal of ships probably due to sneak attacks taking them by surprise.

The heaviest casualties would have been at the very start of the war.

[JSPuddlejumper]

Yeah, we know for a fact that the Wraith destroyed 2 Asuran ships.

Let's say the Wraith are doing 'well', and up that number to 20 ships.

Before the war, the Wraith probably had 50 Hives, and many cruisers, let's be really generous and say 200 cruisers.

So even with superior tech, the Asurans must have lost some ships. But that wont make any difference to the Asurans, they will easily make many more ships and according to Niam there were billions of Asurans to begin with! (And of course they Replicate, so can never die). They can also adapt to any technology.

So in terms of sheer military force, the Wraith, or anybody else (even the none Ascened Ancients, Ori) will not win a war against the Asurans.

The Ancients in building the Asurans created the greatest weapon in the universe, only flaw is the access to the base code, without which the Asurans are unstoppable.

In essence, the Wraith are majorly screwed. What the Atlantis expedition needs to do is wait till the Asurans have destroyed enough Wraith (at least 50% of them) before 'helping' them. Thus the Wraith are really no longer a major threat to earth or to even Atlantis.

[Buba uognarf]

Yeah, we know for a fact that the Wraith destroyed 2 Asuran ships.

Let's say the Wraith are doing 'well', and up that number to 20 ships.

Before the war, the Wraith probably had 50 Hives, and many cruisers, let's be really generous and say 200 cruisers.

So even with superior tech, the Asurans must have lost some ships. But that wont make any difference to the Asurans, they will easily make many more ships and according to Niam there were billions of Asurans to begin with! (And of course they Replicate, so can never die). They can also adapt to any technology.

So in terms of sheer military force, the Wraith, or anybody else (even the none Ascened Ancients, Ori) will not win a war against the Asurans.

The Ancients in building the Asurans created the greatest weapon in the universe, only flaw is the access to the base code, without which the Asurans are unstoppable.

In essence, the Wraith are majorly screwed. What the Atlantis expedition needs to do is wait till the Asurans have destroyed enough Wraith (at least 50% of them) before 'helping' them. Thus the Wraith are really no longer a major threat to earth or to even Atlantis.

I'm not entirely convinced about the 60 hive ship statement from season 1, I find it hard to believe that a single Wraith data pad could detect every hive ship in the galaxy especially seeing as the Wraith aren't united. Plus that was only active hives at the time, there could be many more.

However I do agree with your assessment of the Asurans. 50% of the entire Wraith fleet could still stomp on Atlantis and the MW imo.

[ashman2]

What the Atlantis expedition needs to do is wait till the Asurans have destroyed enough Wraith (at least 50% of them) before 'helping' them. Thus the Wraith are really no longer a major threat to earth or to even Atlantis.

I reckon though that the only way to beat the Asurans is for Atlantis and the Wraith to work together, so by all means let them get pwned a little bit, but if they wait too long then the Wraith may no longer have the forces necessary to help us.

[Crazy Tom]

yes it's a thin line, but the asurans are also really stupid in their own way. they imitate the anchients completly: and the anchients lost the war. granted asurans are way mmore powerful but this war is likely to be longer than you guys predict.

[JSPuddlejumper]

Assuming there are only 60 Hives before the SGA team arrived:

Yeah, if they wait too long the Wraith wont have sufficient numbers to help.

Fine line, but if they start too soon, the Wraith are still too much of a threat.
But 50-60% Wraith losses, that sounds about right IMO, before they start teaming up. Wraith are still infighting, so they have to start sooner than they would like to shut off the Asurans.

Even if the Wraith lose 50% of the remaining numbers, you are right they will be still a threat to Atlantis, but not IMO to the MW.

2 Wraith Hives just got toasted in a recent episode...that leaves about 46 Hives or so...Half of that is 23.


23 Hives vs the MW. The Wraith are still infighting...They will be hard stretched to get more than 10 Hives together IMO. There are also the Jaffa with many Ha'taks in the MW, earth should have about 5 battlecruisers with Asgard upgrades by that time. Wraith threat will go the way of the G'ould threat, still there but far diminished.

[Buba uognarf]

Assuming there are only 60 Hives before the SGA team arrived:

Yeah, if they wait too long the Wraith wont have sufficient numbers to help.

Fine line, but if they start too soon, the Wraith are still too much of a threat.
But 50-60% Wraith losses, that sounds about right IMO, before they start teaming up. Wraith are still infighting, so they have to start sooner than they would like to shut off the Asurans.

Even if the Wraith lose 50% of the remaining numbers, you are right they will be still a threat to Atlantis, but not IMO to the MW.

2 Wraith Hives just got toasted in a recent episode...that leaves about 46 Hives or so...Half of that is 23.


23 Hives vs the MW. The Wraith are still infighting...They will be hard stretched to get more than 10 Hives together IMO. There are also the Jaffa with many Ha'taks in the MW, earth should have about 5 battlecruisers with Asgard upgrades by that time. Wraith threat will go the way of the G'ould threat, still there but far diminished.

You're forgetting that the Wraith are only infighting because of the lack of food, once the Asurans are finished with there will be a lot fewer Wraith to feed and their should be plenty of humans. Provided the Asurans don't wipe out too many.

Even 10 hives + plus escorting cruisers would be more than a match for any fleet the Jaffa could muster, we've never seen them gather more than a dozen of so ships at once e.g. camelot I doubt they could handle a combined Wraith fleet of that size. 5 fully upgraded earth battlecruisers would make short work of the fleet but that's only if they have the Asgard weapons if they don't they'd be taken out with relative ease imo.

[JSPuddlejumper]

"they imitate the anchients completly: and the anchients lost the war"

There is no way the Asurans can lose any military style war against any enemy, including the far more powerful Ori followers and their ships.

Think about it: unlimited manpower, unlimited supplies, ability to adapt to any technology, no rest or food needed, no 'emotions' to get in the way, if their base code firewall wasn't an issue, they could easily conquer the universe. Only way they wont is if Asceneded beings took part directly, even then, I would not put it past the Asurans to make weapons to destroy Ascended beings (the Ascended beings would obviously have to act before they made those weapons).

"Even 10 hives + plus escorting cruisers would be more than a match for any fleet the Jaffa could muster, we've never seen them gather more than a dozen of so ships at once e.g. camelot I doubt they could handle a combined Wraith fleet of that size. 5 fully upgraded earth battlecruisers would make short work of the fleet but that's only if they have the Asgard weapons if they don't they'd be taken out with relative ease imo."

I would assume that 1 Ha'tak=1 Cruiser. There still must be 100's of Ha'taks in the MW. If there was a real danger to the Jaffa, they could probably get 20 Ha'taks together. Yeah, without the Asgard upgrades, it is no good. 1 earth ship = 1 Hive...With Asgard upgrades, 5 earth battlecruisers will make very short work out of 10 Hives.

[ashman2]

we've never seen them gather more than a dozen of so ships at once e.g. camelot

what about, was it reckoning, in seasn 8 when Baals fleet, which was vast, went up against an equally vast replicator fleet. That was massive, although writing this I've just realised that was when the jaffa were under the leadership of the gouald,

[freyr's mother]

What makes me mad is that in First Strike we took out ALL their ships right. Well how come within less than a week they were able to build a FLEET and launch them to a wraith stronghold. The Daedalus had been making reconissance flybys for months documenting their progress. It doesnt make sense I tell you.

[JSPuddlejumper]

Annubis/Baal's fleet against the Replicators was indeed massive, probably around 50 ships.

But the Jaffa are divided now, I do not see them putting together more than 20 ships.

As for the Asurans fleets. Those photo's were taken 3 weeks ago (Apollo came from Earth with those photo's that is why I assume they were 3 week old pics). During that time the Asurans could have build more shipyards (some suggested underground) and additional ships. Beings that need no rest and know how to make a ship from scratch...machines building machines = INSANE building speed. So it is somewhat plausible that they could have a massive fleet ready to fight the Wraith.

[Wraith_Boy]

I think a bigger question is how could the Asurans launch another fleet so quickly. In 'First Strike' all their ships were destroyed. We know they were almost out of power in Adrift etc.

Yet at the end of 'Lifeline', they had launched another fleet of ships only this time against the Wraith.

[Jeffala]

When you consider "machines building machines" also consider that they make their ships out of conventional materials. They're not like the MW replicators with their replicator blocks forming ships.

They must have the resources that any Lantean would have access to in order to build their ships. It's not illogical to assume that at some point, they would begin to have supply difficulties. They can't keep building ships indefinitely.

[Myles]

I think a bigger question is how could the Asurans launch another fleet so quickly. In 'First Strike' all their ships were destroyed. We know they were almost out of power in Adrift etc.

Yet at the end of 'Lifeline', they had launched another fleet of ships only this time against the Wraith.

I think it's pretty clear that the Asurans used a giant plot hole to create all the ships to attack the Wraith. If not, and they're just that damn fast, why would we try and destroy something that will take a few days rebuild?